The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 26 January, 2026

EU Approves Ban on Russian Gas Imports Including Arctic LNG

High North News reported on January 28 that the European Union formally adopted legislation phasing out Russian natural gas imports by late 2027. The ban will prohibit Russian LNG imports beginning in 2027, with pipeline gas following in autumn 2027. The measure passed despite opposition from Hungary and Slovakia. (High North News)

Take 1: This ban eliminates the primary market for Russia’s Arctic LNG exports, forcing complete restructuring of Moscow’s northern energy strategy. Yamal LNG currently sends approximately 75 percent of its production to the EU, requiring Novatek to redirect more than 15 million tonnes annually to Asian markets without the transshipment infrastructure designed for European routes. The timing compounds pressure on Russian Arctic operations already facing sanctions on maritime services and shipyard access, potentially leaving Russia’s most profitable Arctic projects stranded without viable markets. Redirecting Russian LNG to Asian buyers risks giving China and other states even larger stakes in Arctic energy infrastructure and shipping routes, potentially strengthening their claims for greater influence in regional governance decisions that Arctic nations have tried to limit. The EU also included substantial penalties – up to €40 million fine for violations – to ensure compliance despite resistance from member states still reliant on Russian energy. Europe’s effort to isolate Russia economically may inadvertently reshape Arctic power dynamics by forcing Moscow into deeper partnerships with Asian nations, highlighting the difficulty of targeted Western sanctions. (Politico, Reuters)

US Begins Technical Talks with Denmark and Greenland 

ABC News reported on January 28 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced technical talks between the US, Denmark, and Greenland on Arctic security. Rubio stated the discussions aim to address differences away from media attention to create flexibility for both sides. The talks have begun through a working group created after the January 14 White House meeting. (ABC News)

Take 2: The creation of this working group represents an attempt to institutionalize negotiations over Greenland’s future despite the previous incompatible positions of both sides.The working group addresses growing Russian and Chinese military presence in Arctic waters that Denmark cannot monitor or defend alone. Most Arctic nations, including the United States, lack the resources to build adequate surveillance infrastructure to monitor the harsh territory against foreign influence, creating security vulnerabilities that affect the entire region. Russian naval activity through the GIUK Gap has increased substantially, while Chinese companies have attempted establishing footholds in Greenland to access critical mineral deposits. The discussions likely focus on expanding radar networks and coordinating investment screening to prevent Russian and Chinese control of critical infrastructure. Greenland needs substantial investment to reduce economic dependence on China, which currently buys nearly a quarter of its exports. The framework agreement allows cooperation on these practical security concerns while avoiding the sovereignty dispute that Trump’s annexation rhetoric created. These negotiations also demonstrate how Arctic security cooperation increasingly requires bilateral deals, with previous multilateral frameworks like the Arctic Council not proving strong enough to meet emerging threats. (Atlantic Council, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, The New York Times)

Oil Rig Collapse in Alaska 

Inside Climate News reported on January 28 that an oil rig toppled onto the tundra in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve last week while en route to drill for ConocoPhillips‘ winter exploration program. The rig was carrying approximately 4,000 gallons of diesel when it fell, igniting a fire and spilling fuel less than 500 feet from a tributary to the Colville River. Five days after the incident, severe weather prevented crews from responding to the spill or assessing damage. (Inside Climate News)

Take 3: This accident exposes the environmental vulnerabilities created by rushing Arctic oil exploration without adequate safeguards. ConocoPhillips received federal approval for this exploration program with only one week of public comment, pushing industrial activity deeper into the wilderness areas and prime subsistence hunting grounds of Nuiqsut, home to many Iñupiat residents. The expansion into high-density caribou habitat threatens Indigenous subsistence resources that community members depend on culturally and economically. The rig collapsed during unusually warm weather which can weaken frozen tundra, showing the risks of Arctic industrial operations under the unpredictable hazards created by climate change. Despite the accident, a federal judge allowed ConocoPhillips to continue exploration using a different rig. The Trump administration’s rollback of Biden-era protections for the petroleum reserve enables this accelerated drilling and triggers domino effects of expanded Arctic development. The safety risks for Arctic communities have been ignored to prioritize economic profits over environmental protection and cultural preservation. As Arctic warming accelerates and industrial pressure intensifies, incidents like this will become more common, with Indigenous communities facing the consequences of development decisions made without their input. (Anchorage Daily News, ScienceDirect, The Indigenous Foundation)

Russia Completes First Domestically Built Arc7 LNG Carrier 

High North News reported on January 26 that Russia’s first domestically assembled Arc7 LNG carrier, Alexey Kosygin, completed a full Northern Sea Route transit that served as ice trials. The vessel covered the route in approximately 13 days at 8-9 knots, spending much of the transit leading the convoy rather than following the nuclear-powered icebreaker Sibir. The carrier expands Russia’s LNG shadow fleet to 12 vessels. (High North News)

Take 4: The Alexey Kosygin‘s completion demonstrates Russia’s ability to sustain Arctic LNG operations through alternative supply chains despite Western sanctions. While five completed Arc7 carriers remain trapped at Hanwha Ocean in South Korea due to sanctions, Russia’s Zvezda shipyard has continued assembling hulls delivered by Samsung Heavy Industries before sanctions took effect, with Chinese assistance filling gaps left by Western technology. This vessel enters service as Russia’s Arctic LNG projects face European market losses from the EU gas ban, requiring redirection of cargoes to Asian markets through longer routes. The new Arc7 design represents improvements over earlier Yamal LNG carriers, with enhanced propulsion capabilities enabling independent operations, making year-round operations to Asian markets more viable. The growing shadow fleet creates maritime safety concerns for Norway since the deactivated AIS transponders obscure the identity and position of the vessels as they pass through Norwegian Arctic coasts. In response to Russian resistance, Norway and other Western nations need to strengthen maritime surveillance capabilities and develop enforcement mechanisms to track these shadow fleet vessels, though doing so requires significant investment in Arctic monitoring infrastructure that most nations currently lack. (High North News, Reuters, The Barents Observer)

Norwegian Polar Bears Show Unexpected Weight Gain 

BBC News reported on January 29 that polar bears in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago have increased average body mass and fat reserves since the early 1990s despite steady sea ice decline. Researchers from the Norwegian Polar Institute weighed and measured 770 adult bears between 1992 and 2019 and found bears had improved body condition, even as ice-free days increased by almost 100 during that period. The scientists believe Svalbard bears have adapted to ice loss by eating more land-based prey including reindeer and walruses. (BBC News)

Take 5: This unexpected finding challenges assumptions about Arctic wildlife responses to climate change, creating some hope in adaptation responses. Walrus population recovery after hunting has provided polar bears with new fatty food sources, while reindeer populations have also increased in recent decades. Seals are also forced to congregate in smaller areas with less ice, making them easier targets for bears and offsetting some hunting difficulties from ice loss. However, researchers emphasize this improvement won’t last as continued ice decline forces bears to travel further to reach hunting grounds, depleting the fat reserves they’re currently building. Other Svalbard research shows more ice-free days already reduce cub survival and threaten subadult and old females. In Canada’s Western Hudson Bay, polar bear populations are declining directly from warming temperatures, showing how regional differences create varied short-term outcomes. This research highlights how we cannot take the temporary resilience through behavioral adaptation for granted as these adaptations cannot compensate for fundamental habitat loss as sea ice continues disappearing. Arctic populations need sea ice to survive, and without reversing ice loss trends, even populations showing current resilience will eventually face the same declining trajectory. (Arctic Ice Project, Nature)